The State of the Republican Party

This is one of my favorite subjects right now and it is fitting to post it as my first post. After the 2012 election in which Barack Obama won, the consensus was that it was all about demographics. After all, Obama lost the independents but nonetheless he won the election. It was as clear as water that the GOP had a demographic problem and that needed to be dealt with before the 2014 midterms. Here we are in less than a year away and has the GOP made inroads to solve their problems?

Immigration was supposed to be the biggest deal. After all that was a deciding issue in swaying the Latino vote. Romney’s draconian positions on Immigration in the primary (see self-deportation) and the party whole immigration platform, made him lose the vote 27% to 71%. As the fastest growing minority in the country, those were devastating numbers and surely the GOP would try to change something after the election? The initial chatter immediately was that yes, the GOP needed to change its platform, support the DREAM act and some way of giving proper documentation to those who were already in the country illegally. Most people, me included were thinking that immigration would be among the first things that would be tackled by the new congress. How wrong were we all proven! After initial attempts, the senate could not come close to a deal and everything looked dead in the house. The bill that was passed in early July was unsatisfactory to both sides. But the Senate republicans, to their credits (Mostly McCain, Corker, Rubio and Co.) understood that it would be very hard to win national elections without a hefty slice of the Latino vote. Their counterparts in the house however, do not seem to have that foresight. As most of them are backed by strong majority of whites in their conservative districts, they have nothing to gain and everything to lose by endorsing immigration, being primaried being their chief fear, so they all cling to the old platform. John Boehner (R), Speaker of the House, however can see that it will be difficult to ever win a national election again without an immigration bill, but his own internal problems are stopping his action. Were he to immediately bring the senate bill to the floor, I am sure it would pass with the vote of all democrats and republicans in moderate districts. But due to his fear of his own caucus, the speaker will not bring up the bill until it has a majority of republicans (his own words), which is pretty much impossible. So essentially, the GOP is trapped between a rock and a hard place. Marco Rubio and his failure to lead on that issue deserves his own essay.

Women’s issues were also a big deal in the election. In 2010 as in 2012 the majority of Governor’s mansion and state legislatures are held by the Republican Party. In 2011 and early 2012 despite being voted in on the basis of jobs, jobs,jobs, they passed bills with limits and restrictions on abortion, the de-funding of planned parenthood, because that is what the base of the party was clamoring for. While the very base of the party will turn out more than casual voters or supporters in the mid-terms, the general public tends to only focus on the presidential elections. The base that skyrocketed the republicans in the Governors’ mansions, state legislatures and the House was very pleased with those policies; however the General public being always on the moderate side was generally spooked by such measures. That coupled with the Democrats already strong record on women’s issues increased the margins with which Obama won (55% to 44%). So of course you would expect that the stance of the party would soften as to be able to level the field so the GOP could compete with those women vote with the Democrats. But no after such disasters like Todd Akin and Richard Murdock costing the GOP a Senate majority, republican led states are still passing basically the same laws restricting birth control access and abortions! That might keep them in power in the states and in the House of Representative but what about the national election of 2016? Will those women who voted solely democratic on the basis of their rights and health issues suddenly switch to a party that hasn’t changed its platform and ideals? With the independent voters’ hold on deciding victory dwindling is that something that the GOP can afford to do? I don’t think so.