Saturday, March 1, 2014

Dire Times for Ukraine


Guys (by that I mean my few sparse, readers, joking!) I am following this Ukraine situation like a hawk because it basically reads like the old timey maneuvers by the USSR against the United States and like many people, I am beginning to think that the cold war is back. I'm still travelling so these post will be shambolic and rather badly written and for that I am truly sorry.

So there is no hiding it now, Soviet-I mean- Russian tanks have moved in the Crimean province of Kharkiv. Under the pretext of securing the rights of Russian nationals living there. Let us not forget that those Russian national are basically an anti-Kiev, Kremlin supporting, Berkut militia who were issued those passports yesterday. The Russian Senate, has passed a law that allows for the use of troops in Ukraine, forgetting that it goes against the agreement of 1994 between the United States, Great Britain and Russia guaranteeing the territorial unity and safety of Ukraine, in order for Ukraine to renounce their nuclear weapons arsenal. There is nothing that the Ukrainian armed forces can do against the much superior Russian forces but retreat. As a matter of fact the Ukrainian interim government announced today that their navy was retreating from the Black Sea basically leaving it to Russia. Crimea is still Russian occupied and its airspace closed. I don't know how anyone would not qualify this as invasion, Ukraine is a sovereign country and all this maneuvers are illegal according to international law. Frankly, I am also surprised by how open about it Putin and his administration are about their acts in Ukraine, they must feel pretty confident, despite the fact that the vast majority of Ukrainians have showed them that they are unwanted and that their interference in Ukrainian internal politics is distasteful.

As for the Western countries that the Maidan protesters wanted to ally themselves with, we have been getting either nothing or rather weak statements. William Hague, the British Foreign Secretary issued some weak statement condemning Russia and summoned the Russian ambassadors. The German Foreign Ministry has behaved in a similarly weak fashion, and announced they are in constant contact with Russian officials, like that's going to do something. The UN, that most useless of all international bodies, has called a security council to discuss the situation, as if there could be anything achieved since Russia has veto power in the council. Not a peep from NATO. Most disappointing of all is the United States, after that brief stern statement by President Obama (read my opinion here), there has been no reaction to Russian tanks entering a sovereign country with no permission. Does the White House not care how this is making the US look in the world? Weak, Pathetic and cowering under the crushing might of Russia. I realize my writing and opinion sounds very right wing and neocon by there is really no other solution in this situation other than to intimidate Russia. The Kremlin has demonstrated that nothing will every phase them, sanctions etc. but I believe and I am sure of it that the threat of the US moving its military might might at least stop Putin from taking drastic actions in Ukraine. If the United States direct armed intervention is too much, then the President ought to direct NATO, which the US leads, into doing something, it doesn't have to be big but something to show the Kremlin that the rest of the world will not let Ukraine be partitioned and show the Ukrainian people that they have champions. Otherwise let's all remember what appeasement once produced eh?

The drums of war have begun, I am very against war but at this point Western nations need to do something military because, let this slide and Putin will want more and more and at some point it will be too much and open war be the only solution. Act now while all sides are still scared by the prospect of an all out war. President Obama must lead on this and let all democratic nations take their cues from him, their military and economic might might be enough to scare off the Kremlin and end this conflict in its infancy.

1 comment:

  1. Hubert, you seem pretty confident that US military might is the only thing which can put Ukraine's problems to rights yet has the 20th century demonstrated that this really works? US victory in WWI brought about the Treaty of Versailles and the crushing economic situation which paved the way for Hitler's rise to power. Then after WWII it was another US victory that underwrote our Soviet "allies" killing their own people in higher numbers than the Nazi's killed Jews. I don't honestly see how we can be so confident that overcoming violence with more violence is a sure bet to fix the world's problems.

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