Ukraine

I am resurrecting my blog from death, life happens, because I, in my infinite vanity would never miss out a opportunity to say 'I told you so.' According to the Guardian, Russian troops have been interfering in Easter Ukraine, helping the dissidents against the new Ukrainian administration, led by oligarch Petro Poroshenko. Ukraine and Russia are supposed to enter this ceasefire that is completely on the terms of Vladimir Putin.

The ceasefire, and its endorsement by NATO leaders is ridiculous in the sense that Ukraine is settling with its attacker, while it claims the world biggest powers as its bakers and Russia, that is supposedly the pariah in the International community is getting all their terms. How is this going to encourage Russia to deescalate the situation? If I was Vladimir Putin and seeing the cautious if not downright afraid manner in which the western world is responding to me why would I stop my troops advancing deeper in the country and carving out more territory for my planned resurrection of the Russian Empire/USSR? Crimea is already in the pocket.

The NATO powers and Germany have responded to Russian tanks and weapons with watered down sanctions. The Chinese are never going to interfere since this stand off is actually good for them, it exposes to the rest of the word the new normal, western power is waning while the eastern power rises. I understand that the western leaders have constituencies at home to consider, they are democracies, but this weak responses are eventually going to cost the current political classes their seats once the situation has aggravated beyond repair. Doesn't anyone, David Cameron of all, not remember the failure of Neville Chamberlain?

Ukraine has requested NATO help and my ideal solution would be for NATO to grant that request and sent its troops to eastern Ukraine. The Russian president would be enraged and he would offer all forms of threats but he would do nothing. The Russia troops that are in that region in faux-incognito would be sent back. Russia would not risk any instance in which a war with NATO powers is a possibility, there is no winning in that situation. Not even with the backing of China, which would wash its hands of any involvement in that titanic struggle. Alas, that is never going to happen.

The only solution are actual real economic sanctions against Russia, not the watered down versions the European Union and the United States have passed. Forget targeting the president's inner circle, target him and his cabinet directly. Strangle Russian banks and financial vital organs in international trade. Once the Russian oligarchs see their wallets getting smaller they will exercise their influence on the Russian president and stop this madness.

These solutions are the least likely to happen however. What we will see is more watered down sanctions. Fights in eastern Ukraine, more ceasefires, until the red line is crossed by one of the two sides. Unfortunately it will be to late to do anything.