Marco Rubio, Hope Gone Sour

At his election in 2010 Marco Rubio looked like hope for the Republican Party. A well-spoken, Latino man, beloved by the Tea Party and supported by the Republican establishment. Whispers of a second Barack Obama were heard and even the future Republican presidential candidate, Mitt Romney, campaigned for him. The Republicans needed a high profile Latino and the well-spoken Rubio certainly was it.
In 2012, there was talk of him becoming Vice Presidential nominee for Romney, his star was still shining bright in the Republican Party. Things would however, start to turn sour after Romney lost the election manly due to the lack of minority votes.

The Republican establishment understood this rather well, they needed minorities and they would never get that vote until there was an evolution on immigration. So, many important figures in the party began to support immigration reform including of course the perpetually spoken of but never passed DREAM Act. Rubio, a darling of the establishment and a Latino himself came out for immigration reform, a practical and smart decision. The Tea Party, a big factor in his reelection, had a very adverse reaction to that decision. Unlike the establishment of the Republican Party, the Tea Party did not and still hasn't recognized the need for minorities in elections, and they continued, if not increased their ardor in opposing any change in immigration that might make it easy for illegal immigrant to stay in the country. Rubio in fear of having his base turn against him, backed slightly away from the initial one time sweeping bill, and began like other scared Republican legislators to advocate for a piecemeal approach, which would take longer and give less benefits to illegal immigrants. That position of course began the eroding of his credibility among Latinos, moderates, and American independents that mostly support immigration reform.

Another factor in the dimming of the Rubio star came in the firebrand pair of Ted Cruz and Rand Paul. Both loudly outspoken, both unabashedly on the right, both dismissive of the Republican establishment, and none displaying the pandering and indecision that plagued Rubio. Paul had his moment in the spotlight, as he went on a 19 hour filibuster against the use of drones by the United States. Cruz had his 21 hour speaking marathon railing against Obamacare. Those tactics gained Cruz and Paul national name recognition similar if not greater than Rubio's and insured the loyalty of the Tea Party and the republican base, something that continues to elude Rubio. So far Rubio has been unable to create a moment like that to give himself a solid following. Occasions like these, where political character is asserted, are what make a president. If we recall president Obama had his anti-war speech at the 2004 democratic convention in the same vein. Paul and Cruz understood that and created those opportunities, Rubio has not. His State of the Union rebuttal was a missed opportunity, as no spark of personality or policy, were displayed, save an embarrassing moment when he gulped water from a small bottle on air. So we come to his latest misstep.

Rubio will be speaking at a fundraiser for the Florida Family Council, a dinner honoring Matt Staver an anti-gay activist who is currently suing Chris Christie for his conversion therapy ban signing. It is unnecessary to remind people that according to most polls, the American public supports same-sex marriage equality and the power of organizations like the Florida Family Council are waning. Rubio has been getting a beating in the press due to his decision to attend this dinner. Bad press is of course never good for a politician no matter how brief, as it is often used by adversaries a long time after the event has been forgotten by the general public. The mood in the nation is supportive of gay rights and moderates in the Republican Party seem to understand that. They are beginning to stay quiet and say nothing. But for Rubio this show of support while it may endear him back into the graces of Tea Party republicans will harm him in the general public and make it harder for him to win the election were he to ever secure the nomination.

Rubio continues to show ambiguity and indecision, which have been responsible for his ever decreasing national profile. He seems unsure of wanting to be either a sensible moderate with popular appeal or a darling of the Tea Party and the hard right. It is a catch 22. To win - the republican primary, it is a necessity to appeal to the party base, which is always very conservative and Tea Party friendly. However, being a moderate candidate in the primaries would make it un-winnable for him, especially if he was facing the firebrands Cruz and Paul. So Rubio is left straddling the line between the two hoping to garner enough votes from both sides to give him a nomination. Rubio has continued to show a lack of personality, which would be fine if he had solid support from one side but impossible if he is trying to play both. Christie who is trying to do the same has been much more successful at it because he has a personality and people connect with his character. What is endearing about Rubio? No one knows. There are no defined character traits, no hint of what he is like in his personal life, nothing that the voters can find to love about him. All the other potential 2016’ers named above have strong and defined characters save for Rubio.

Initially hailed as savior of the party and potential game changer, Rubio seems to have squandered all chances of building a solid following among his fellow Latinos and moderates. He has misread the mood of the country on LGBT issues and refuses to show even a hint of distinct character. Considering all these factors, I fail to see how Rubio has a chance of ever becoming President of the United States.