If you follow French politics, you are aware that Francois Hollande, the current president of France is very unpopular. His government elected under the motto le changement c'est maintenant meaning change is now (echos of Obama 2008) has not delivered on its promises.
A couple of scandals, the biggest one being that the finance minister, Jerome Cahuzac had money stashed in tax heavens. The inability to implement the chief selling point of the presidential campaign, a tax rate of 75% for those who make over a million euros during 2 years, was shut down by the Constitutional Council (the French equivalent to the Supreme Court). An unpopular prime minister in Jean Marc Ayerault (should have gone with Martine Aubry in my view) and a government riddled with indecision and indirection. Hollande and his party, the PS (Parti Socialiste) have had a rough governing year which gave Sarkozy the perfect time to make a political comeback.
After the election, Sarkozy went in what can be called a period of political hibernation. He was not seen or heard of. The UMP (Union pour Un Movement Populaire), his political party went thought a civil war that tarnished the party's upper echelon and the leading potential UMP candidates in the presidential election of 2017, Jean Francois Cope and Francois Fillon. With the party splintered in two sides, the extremist Cope side and the mainstream moderate Fillon side,Sarkozy was seen as the savior and the one who can unite the party. His political credibility got so high among UMP militants that an organization called Les Amis de Nicholas (the friends of Nicholas) was founded. UMP politicians on both sides regularly cite his name in an effort to gain attention and credibility among the core of their party. Coupled with the bad polls numbers that Hollande is suffering from (23% approval ratings), the fall of 2013 should have been the ideal time for him to make a grand return to the political scene and make a case for his return to the Elysee Palace come 2017. The wheels were even in motions, last week he went to give the Legion d' Honneur to a former MP of his party. The entire french press attended and was given a an off the record chat with Sarkozy in which he expressed his sadness for the current French situation and that he will act for the good of France. The comeback of the decade was in motion if not for this one pesky little detail.
After his election, Sarkozy was accused of campaign regulation violation, that isn't alarming as even the previous president, Jacques Chirac was accused of it. There were rumors of Gaddafi money thrown in but the biggest one was that he had duped Liliane Bettencourt, the 90 year old owner of the L'Oreal beauty empire into donating too much money in his campaign due to her lack of clarity because of illness. It was ridiculed at first but last week new evidence emerged, and a formal case was opened, Sarkozy might stand trial. That throws a wench in his comeback plans as standing trial would ruin his political image and effectively and his chances of a second term at the French presidency. His return to politics went from imminent and buzzed about to a whimper.
Francois Hollande
I am not a big fan of Sarkozy or the UMP, but I believe Sarkozy was good for France. The reason why the French economy didn't tank as much as other European countries was due in part to the foresight of Sarkozy and his cut of wasteful spending. He was forced to go on the extreme right on immigration and social issues in the last election in an attempt to keep the extreme right wingers from the Front National (AKA the French Tea Party). Given a chance again he would be a center right moderate candidate which is good for France. At the very least his presence on the French consciousness and political scene would keep Francois Hollande on his toes and drive him to accomplish some of his campaign promises, as Cope and Fillon are jokes compared to the credible threat that Sarkozy offers. I hope he is innocent and look forward to interesting political time in France.
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